Fully electric vehicles are experiencing a bumpier ride in North America as hybrid sales surge

An overview of the market for green vehicles

Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash

This week I take a look at the market for electric vehicles (EVs). Statistics are plentiful, but can be a little hard to follow. One reason is that researchers sometimes use different definitions of what constitutes an electric car. There are other details that need parsing, too, but I’ve tried to avoid becoming too technical here, just focusing on the big picture. I hope you find this overview useful. -RZ

Summary

While many governments are pushing for the transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles as quickly as possible, sales figures suggest most consumers prefer a phased approach, especially in North America.

Analysts believe that the battery electric vehicle market, propelled by early adopters, is now slowing, and that the road to full electrification will not be a superhighway. Instead it will be a road with curves, intersections and maybe even some dead ends.

According to the International Energy Agency, nearly one in five vehicles sold globally during 2023 was electric. Twenty percent sounds like progress, but looking ahead there’s a large gap to cover if we are to achieve the optimistic forecasts of electric vehicle sales of fifty percent by 2035.

Convenience

Current data indicates that the fastest growing sector of the automotive marketplace is that of hybrid vehicles.

Plug-in hybrid vehicles (powered by an externally-charged electric motor as well as a combustion engine) and standard hybrids (no external cable, with batteries charging while the car is in motion) are outpacing full battery EV sales by a wide margin. In the United States sales of these hybrid vehicles in February of this year, for example, grew five times faster than sales of EVs.

There are several reasons why hybrids are so popular. Firstly, they are cheaper to buy than all-electric vehicles. In many ways hybrids are also more convenient, compensating for some of the characteristics of battery EVs that are still under development. For example, hybrids are less dependent on networks of charging stations since they can also run on gasoline. Because electric energy recovery systems are built into standard hybrids, these vehicles also consume less fuel than traditional internal combustion vehicles. This increases their range and provides solace for drivers who are turned off by the biggest "annoyances" related to the infrastructure requirements of fully electric vehicles. We’ve all heard the list: range anxiety, charging times that still seem too long, a shortage of public charging stations that are prone to lineups or charging machines that are found to be out-of-order when drivers need a boost.

Consumers with plug-in hybrid systems have fewer worries. They tend to charge their cars overnight and have the peace of mind of knowing that if they run out of battery power while on the road, they can switch to internal combustion energy to get them home.

Emissions for hybrids, while not zero, are lower than traditional internal combustion vehicles, so people who are environmentally-conscious also feel they are still making a contribution to a greener economy.

Toyota's strategy

Photo by Christina Telep on Unsplash

Ford and General Motors recently slowed down their production of electric vehicles to better match market demand and reduce financial losses. Toyota, meanwhile, has for a long time opted for a slow-and-steady approach. It has employed a diversified strategy on electrification, despite criticisms from some groups. The Japanese company believes a lot of work still needs to be done before we can hope to achieve full electrification. Instead of focusing on only all-electric options, Toyota pushed successfully for the continual refinement of hybrid engines. With a large lineup of standard and plug-in hybrid models, its sales have steadily increased. Toyota has also continued to invest heavily in research into alternative power plants, like internal combustion engines fuelled by hydrogen, for example, instead of gasoline. This is showing promising results. Toyota has also tested hydrogen fuel cells and engines that run on liquid ammonia.

Hydrogen-powered race cars

Other companies also see potential in some of these green solutions. Hydrogen in particular is plentiful and is considered a clean fuel with no harmful emissions. AVL, an Austrian firm, has made substantial progress in the development of zero emission internal combustion engines powered by hydrogen. The company recently unveiled a beefy 410 horsepower, 2-liter engine for motor racing applications. To achieve this milestone, AVL collaborated with Hungary's HUMDA Lab to develop a water injection system that dramatically boosts horsepower by increasing the air-fuel pressure in the combustion chamber. They are now testing their solution in real race conditions. This could be the future of sustainable motor racing and will have spinoff applications for all aspects of the automotive industry.

Hybrids, however, continue to be the dominant force in prestige global motor racing competitions. Since 2012, for example, hybrid cars have won every year in the premier category of the LeMans 24-hour sport endurance race, including five straight wins by Toyota.

Toyota GR010 Hybrid (Photo credit here.)

Since 2014, Formula One cars also have been powered by hybrid engines (supplied by Mercedes AMG, Ferrari, Honda and Renault).

Red Bull F1 (courtesy Red Bull content pool0

China leads in EVs

HiPhi branded vehicle in China. Photo by Eyosias G on Unsplash

Meanwhile governments in many countries continue the push towards electrification. In 2023, the number of new electric cars registered globally reached almost 14 million. Of all nations, China has embraced electric vehicles the most. 8.1 million of new electric cars registered last year (57% of the global total) were in that country.

Last week, the Associated Press news agency (AP) provided some context:

A government green-energy push to encourage the development of the electric vehicle industry has transformed the auto market in China. EV sales reached 25% of new car sales last year, cutting into the market for gasoline-powered vehicles. But it's not just how the cars are powered. Chinese car makers have expanded on the Tesla model, adding digital features and connectivity that appeal to a younger, tech-savvy car-buying audience. - as posted on ABCnews.com

European and North American car makers are watching the Chinese market closely. Volkswagen Chief Executive Oliver Blume, attending an industry show last week in China, told AP: “This market has become something of a fitness center for us...We have to work harder and faster to keep up.”

Back in North America consumers have been slower to respond, despite incentives like generous rebates and other measures. 1.2 million new electric vehicles were sold in the United States in 2023, resulting in a combined total of approximately 4.7 million battery EVs and plug-in hybrids on the road. That's still a small percentage of the electric vehicles on the road globally, estimated at just over 40 million by the International Energy Association.

Toyota has argued that for electrification to be successful, large numbers of consumers must want these vehicles requirements. The company has also said that infrastructure developments and ease-of-use must come before top-down regulation. Some manufacturers believe that the penetration of battery electric vehicles will not rise above thirty percent and is destined to fall short of expectations.

Still, it's clear that without governments pushing hard for emission-free vehicles, car makers and consumers would be much slower in responding. So the situation remains quite fluid. The next few years will be pivotal.

Like ongoing experiments in freight rail with hydrogen-powered locomotives, and in air travel with sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), research in the automotive sector points to significant progress being made on alternatives to fossil fuel energy sources. As the clock ticks towards global warming thresholds, it's encouraging to see new ideas being tested and developed for consumers.

Glossary:

EV: Electric vehicle

BEV: Battery electric vehicle

PHEV: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (powered by an electric motor as well as a combustion engine). Can be charged at a charging station.

HEV or Standard Hybrid: An internal combustion vehicle with an electric motor that assists at low speeds. The battery is charged either by the combustion engine or by energy recovery during braking.

ICE: Internal combustion engine, typically powered by gasoline or diesel.

Statistics on electric vehicle sales and ownership sometimes mix together BEV, HEVs and PHEVs.

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Amber MacArthur on the green revolution and the importance of a healthy mindset

Amber Mac, technology consultant. Photo credit here.

On the topic of green innovation, I’d like to share some words from Amber MacArthur, a well-known technology consultant, entrepreneur, podcaster and speaker. (Some time ago, we were colleagues at a Rogers Media production centre in Toronto, working on different programs. She was an on-air contributor and producer of the popular cable TV program This Week in Tech (TWiT) with Leo Laporte.)

In her newsletter this week, she made this point:

Sure, there is plenty of evidence right now that some of the technology powering our green energy revolution is still in its infancy, but it's also true that today's innovations and improvements are rolling out in mere months instead of years.

Many factors affect our capacity to innovate, but without a healthy mindset about what's possible, the relentless transformation possibilities on our doorstep could easily slip away.

Unlike the smartphone revolution, this pivotal moment in history is too important to squander - not just for us, but for future generations and our planet.

-From the Amber Mac newsletter of April 30th, 2024.

Hard to disagree with that.

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I’d like to graciously thank those of you who commented on last week’s post, A village from a bygone era on the Fraser River faces an uncertain future.

A big thank you to Erica in Milan, Lois Thomson Bowersock (who produces the Expect the Unexpected newsletter), Ms. Writer (Life Matters) and Cristina (Tears of Awe) for taking the time to write. I enjoyed and appreciated your thoughtful comments.

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My closing sketch this week is another in my series on motorcycles. This is the Honda CBR300r that I used to own, sketched here in front of shrubbery by the Fraser River.

Thanks for reading Zanepost. Past articles are available on the main webpage.

If you would like to buy me a coffee, here’s how.

Until next time,

-Renato.